Why do some marriages last and others end in divorce? A new study concludes that how newlyweds perceive each other and their relationship can predict whether they will stay married up to nine years later.

The results, published in the March Journal of Family Psychology, were striking. The researchers found that assessing the marital bond of newlyweds with their Oral History Interview predicted who would be divorced in four to six years with 87 percent accuracy. The interview’s predictive accuracy was 81 percent at seven to nine years, according to the article.

The sample was made up of 95 newlywed couples living in the Seattle area who participated in the study within six months of their marriage and were childless. A researcher interviewed them at their home or in a "laboratory apartment" where they were videotaped during the first year of the study.

The participants were followed for five years from 1993 through 1998 and completed mailed questionnaires annually, according to the article.

John Gottman, Ph.D., coauthor and professor of psychology at the University of Washington, told Psychiatric News that the Oral History Interview was more accurate in predicting the rates of divorce among the newlyweds than "paper-and-pencil tests such as the Marital Assessment Test."

According to the article. he interviewer asks the husband and wife to talk about their relationship from the time they met, their philosophy about marriage, and how their parents’ marriages compare with their own,

Meanwhile, an observer codes the positive and negative nature of what couples say about each other and their relationship rather than simply the content of what they say. The couples are rated on three positive items: fondness/affection, "we-ness" (unity), and expansiveness, which includes expressiveness. The three negative scales are negativity, disillusionment, and disappointment.

How couples handle marital conflict is also measured in terms of chaos, volatility, and "glorifying the struggle," meaning that they believe that dealing with the challenges are worth it, according to Gottman.

The researchers found that newlyweds who stayed married referred to themselves as "we" and "us" and displayed fondness, admiration, and affection toward each other.

"They showed a genuine interest in each other, were playful, and could be emotionally supportive when their spouse needed them. They felt their lives were less chaotic and used humor to diffuse conflict," said Gottman.

In contrast, the couples that were more likely to divorce scored low on the positive qualities and high on contempt, criticism, defensiveness, disappointment, and disillusionment, said Gottman. "They also experienced more conflict because they didn’t connect emotionally."

Cybil Carrere, Ph.D., lead author and a psychologist at the University of Washington, told Psychiatric News that "the Oral History Interview is unique because it taps into the couple’s perceptions of each other, which they use to filter their partner’s behaviors."

For example, a wife who has developed admiration and fondness for her husband will tend to give him a break if, for example, he doesn’t get up when the baby cries. In contrast, a wife who is disillusioned and cynical about her husband will think he is a jerk for not getting up, said Carrere.

Gottman, who developed the Oral History Interview with Kim Buehlman, Ph.D., said it can be used to diagnose marital problems at any stage of a couple’s marriage and even before they get married. A 1992 study cowritten by Gottman showed that the interview tool was 94 percent accurate in predicting divorce rates among couples who had been married for five years and had children.

Carrere explained that the somewhat lower accuracy rates in the newlywed study were expected because of the couple’s short history together. "Their relationship is more fluid so certain items in the Oral History Interview such as ‘glorifying the struggle’ were less predictive."

Gottman said he uses the results from the studies on the Oral History Interview in workshops and training materials on marriage at the Gottman Institute. He and his wife founded the institute in 1996 to help couples and families and train marriage counselors.

Gottman said the Oral History Interview could be used to strengthen marriages as well as repair troubled ones.